Times of transition or crises are a good opportunity to revisit one’s habits, patterns and processes. Graduations, job gain/loss, moving, other setbacks or level ups. All mark a time to reflect, and the world in Spring 2020 brings no exceptions. Figure out what has been working, what aspects that may have been temporarily shelved and that should be reintroduced later, or what might be permanently discarded. We only have so much we can carry in these human vessels, might as well be the right things.
Everyone has their own lists that ideally would be constantly under review. Here are some of my practices with some thoughts on how some patterns have not really changed (shameless back-patting), some that have, and others that are in the “yet to do” program.
Part of the Pattern – No or Small Changes
Driving Less: with fewer opportunities to socialize, zero work travel and springtime arriving, have hardly driven a motorized vehicle once a week. Enough to keep the battery charged, tires round and go hike by a river. A period with virtually no money spent on gas and more exercise. Songbirds are singing, trees thinking about blossoming, roads less noisy and crowded for biking. You wonder how many of those forced to give up their hourly daily commutes to work at home will be reluctant to jump back into that rage-filled torture. Not having to drive everywhere is a real blessing.
Asset Allocation: it was a pleasant non-surprise (same as in 2008) to find that I mostly ignored the volatility. Did not pay much attention to the ups and downs. Made no moves to time the market: was that resolute? Lazy? Passive?
Enduring a stress test such as this without losing sleep means that one’s asset allocations (division of investments between various asset classes) seem appropriate for one’s psychology. What is a bit odd is that although a 100% equity person by nature, due to some forced circumstances I had been stuck with 15-20% bonds going into 2020, that I thought I would reduce. Yet, found that I liked having that bit of stabilization in the portfolio through this bumpy ride. Although in some sense my asset allocation was imposed, in contrast to some more aggressive strategy I might have chosen otherwise in advance, that level of conservatism worked out better for my peace of mind. Perhaps I’ll keep them. Lesson learned.
Generosity/DAF: definitely no Gates but feel that some giving should be part of one’s regular routine. No better time to give to some organizations and people that may need help than in Spring 2020. It pained the Scrooge McDuck part of me to have to sell some of the dipped all-equity portfolio held in my Donor Advised Fund to give small grants to local organizations, but hell, the DAF exists to be used, right? If not then, when? One thing to change going forward to avoid the pain of selling stocks low in a crisis to distribute funds from the DAF would be to move the holdings to some % of bonds, same as my personal portfolio, since a crisis is when you might want to unleash the DAF the most. Lesson learned.
We also gave a significant break to our young renter couple that was sick. They are ok fortunately, and hopefully with a clean bill of health they will be free from a lot of those worries that will bear on those of us not yet in the clear. It was a fair bit of money but it was an appropriate thing to do for young millennials struggling to make it in a tough world already. Hopefully they can get back out there and continue helping others.
Moving Work Online and Less Travel: by fortune I had already started a transition of working remotely more, and Spring 2020 inevitably accelerated that process. It made me revisit my home office setup (which was garbage), upgrade a lot of hardware and ergonomics, and overall plan for a more permanent, sustainable configuration, which may be needed for a long time. Recognize that not everyone has the option of being able to work online, but for those of us that can, we should do so to reduce workplace staff density, keep helping clients, pay taxes and try to bail water for the struggling economy.
While I enjoy office in-person interactions and work travel, at least 30% of that is overrated, carbon- and unproductive revenue-burning fluff (says the introvert, example 1). So at the same time I look forward to reintroducing the other valuable 70%, hopefully the nonessential portions will get stripped out.
Gazetteers: Our county was badly hit in Spring 2020 and as a result it was locked down rapidly and hard. (I suggested a different solution but it did not gain much traction from the populace). We were limited on leaving the county so pulled out the state Gazetteer and said ok, have a boundary, but where would be some socially distant places close by to hike, bike, camp that we had not tried before? Turns out many, once one has to operate under those constraints! Great solitary campgrounds out in the middle of nowhere, new desolate canyons I’d never explored, some fishing stretches yet to be waded.
Risk Mitigation and the Bike Triangle: Everything carries risk and an opportunity cost, and transitions might be a chance to get one out of a groove. Consider a triangle of biking choices: mountain, gravel or road. Last year it became evident (since I’m terrible at it and crash all the time) that mountain biking should be de-tuned and more of my time should be shifted to gravel or road biking. Now in Spring 2020 the major bike path that is my conduit to other road rides gets a bit crowded, and I don’t want to go over my handlebars mountain biking (yet again) and add burden to first responders or ERs. So, that calls for a shift to more gravel biking & bikepacking or extremely weak single track mountain biking, where one can be more solitary with low injury risk. If the times nudge you towards different practices, then embrace them.
The same risk mitigation practices should apply to shift behavior across the board. Turns out it was always stupid to go the grocery store for one item, and it’s stupider now. If minor safety upgrades like wearing a safety belt, checking your tire pressure regularly or wearing a mask to the store are low-cost ways to mitigate improbable yet severe consequence events, any engineer familiar with a HAZOP should say: why not? One might argue wearing a mask makes one look stupid but assuredly I already look stupid and a mask is not going to be a downgrade. Easy shift to a new practice if it benefits others. Right now not wearing a mask in a grocery store is the same as tying a sign around one’s neck saying “I’m either a dumbass or a jackass.”
Investing: associated with my inert, boring and passive asset allocation style is an equally turtle-like approach to regular investing. Guys at work like to point out how they jump in and out of the market at the right times. I am not that smart: “it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” So whatever is happening or going to happen, I take the same plodding approach to putting money into the global market regularly. Minimal decision fatigue. If it goes up, it goes up. If it all goes to heck and society collapses then whether one puts a lot or a little in won’t make any difference; we’ll all be fighting over bullets and bacon anyway. Might as well not have “when do I invest” on your list of stressors.
Feel bad for new graduates that are facing this economy and uncertain job prospects, but if you are able to hustle and find a position, then a struggling market earlier in your career when you are able to squirrel away some diversified investments at depressed values might actually be a benefit. Graduating in the hot boom-boom times like Enron and the Dot-Com era didn’t turn out so well for young people that thought to put it all on red or black. Steady, boring 2020-2021 investing might actually turn out to be a better long term environment than the early 2000s. That’s not to downplay the human suffering however.
Yet to Change List
Here are some things that Spring 2020 is nudging me to change, but that I haven’t yet executed with vigor…
Donate Blood: this is a small town, and blood drives don’t come through here that often, but at a time when other people really need it, my O- type (Universal Donor) would be quite useful. Historically I have used the fact that I travel overseas a fair amount, sometimes to developing countries, as a convenient excuse. The truth is I HATE AND FEAR NEEDLES but at this time when people are suffering, that’s just being a Fraidy Fred and I should suck it up and donate a few liters of the good stuff when the drive rolls through.
Work Through The Stockpile: love biking to the library, spending hours there and checking books out to read later. But, library is closed, and as one can be reminded simply by looking around the house, there are scores of purchased books here that 1) are unread and 2) will only need to be read once. Thus, need to work through this stockpile and collect a box of them to donate later. Being homebound is a great opportunity to look around and see all sorts of tools, appliances, furniture etc. that some idiot thought were worth buying at one time, hardly get used, and simply need to undergo the Great Passage to another home. Turns out such items are EVERYWHERE, and being forced to deal with them is a good reminder of one’s uneconomical, inefficient packrattedness.
Improving Attitude Towards Green Plants: my historical philosophy towards plants was: “abandon hope all ye who enter here.” Plants have not had much success, due to inattention, absentmindedness and business travel. Now is a time when it would be great to be more self-reliant and have some fresh vegetables without needing to rub shoulders with potentially plague-bearing albeit still courteous shoppers. This period is a welcome nudge towards having a Victory Garden, and might provide a little diversion. They’ll probably still all die.
Summary
The meta-reflection here is not to adopt any of these strategies necessarily, but rather that transitions and crises are a great prod to revisit one’s habits and processes. There was a good saying floating around on the intertubes that will be mangled here but its essence was: if this period has temporarily drained our cups of some aspects of our life, then when the time comes to refill ours, make sure we refill with those that will serve us best.
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